DIFFERENT APPROACHES OF SIMULATION MODELING IN FORECASTING SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

Tatiana Barkalova¹, Bespalov Dmitriy² and Evgeny Tsaregorodtsev³*
¹Senior Researcher, PhD, Mari State University, Russia, barkalova_tg@mail.ru
²Graduate Student, Mari State University, Russia, dmitriy_bespalov12@mail.ru
³Professor, Dr, Mari State University, Russia, evgts@marsu.ru
*Corresponding author

Abstract
The article considers various approaches of simulation modeling, highlighting the weak and strong points of each of them, analyses the existing approaches and the constructed models, compares the results and draws conclusions about the applicability of simulation models. Also the article considers the possibility of combining different approaches of simulation modelling to achieve better forecasting results. On the basis of this study there are assumptions about the future usage of simulation modelling for forecasting of socio-economic development.

Simulation modelling can be used to avoid the counterintuitive behaviour of the socio-economic system. It should be borne in mind that in the simulation model must be prescribed the correct cause-effect relationships. With the help of modelling, it was possible to understand the internal mechanisms of the development of various economic processes, hiding behind a visible, often seemingly paradoxical, picture of economic phenomena that did not fit into well-known theoretical schemes. Experience in the use of models has shown that they serve as a reliable tool for analysing macroeconomic patterns, as well as predicting the consequences of macroeconomic decisions, provided that the existing relations are maintained.

During crisis and unstable economic development management decisions are characterized by high dynamism, complexity, multi-dimensionality and the presence of overlapping flows of control actions. Clarity, efficiency, completeness, consistency and scientific validity of decisions taken at the regional level is the key to development of the territory. In this regard, the study of socio-economic development of the region becomes especially important.

The research is supported by Russian Science Foundation project #16-18-10017 «Complex of programs for forecasting economic development region»

Keywords: economic-mathematical modeling, forecasting, simulation model, system dynamics, agent modeling